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| Dear Friend Must read the Fact about over bought and over sold,what exactly they are | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Technical analysis
Technical Analysis base on 25th august closing price
Fertiliser Sector update
Good monsoon performance, stable fertiliser sales
· In a written reply to the Lok Sabha, the Minister of State for Chemicals and Fertilisers stated that the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) announced for 2010-11 is on an annual basis. Since this scheme was launched only recently, the government is not considering changes in NBS. This announcement puts to rest speculation that the government is thinking of amending the NBS policy.
· International urea prices strengthened to US$ 275, (up 13.6%) from ~US$ 230/t in early July 2010 on uptick in demand; Indian DAP prices have been contracted at US$ 450-460/t until December 2010 whereas international prices increased to US$ 500/t. We expect a small increase in urea prices and believe that DAP prices would hold up.
· Indian manufacturers contracted phosphoric acid during 2Q at US$ 780/t versus last quarter's price of US$ 775/t.
· International prices of other key raw materials such as ammonia and sulphur have shown an increasing trend. Ammonia prices increased 7.8% to US$ 345 from US$ 320/t in early July and sulphur increased 33% to US$ 120/t from US$ 90/t in early July. International rock phosphate prices have been steady at ~US$ 150-160/t throughout June and July and we expect them to remain steady.
· In July, rain fall picked up and was excess-to-normal in northwest, central and southern peninsular India whereas it was below normal in northeast India. As of August 18, overall rainfall in India was just 5% less than the Long Period Average, resulting in comfortable water storage levels in major reservoirs. Agricultural activity for the season has been in full swing, and sown area for major crops has increased. This augurs well for the fertiliser industry.
| Valuation | ||||||
| Company | Rating | CMP | EPS ( Rs.) | PER(X) | ||
| (Rs.) | FY 11 E | FY 12 E | FY 11 E | FY 12 E | ||
| CFCL | OP | 71 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 10.8 |
| Coromandal International | Buy | 530 | 45.7 | 57 | 11.6 | 9.3 |
| Deepak fertilisers | OP | 158 | 22.3 | 28.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 |
| GNFC | OP | 125 | 10.3 | 18.3 | 12.1 | 6.8 |
| GSFC | Buy | 293 | 43 | 49.1 | 6.7 | 6 |
| RCF | UP | 85 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 17.4 | 16.8 |
| Tata Chemical | OP | 401 | 35 | 42.7 | 11.4 | 9.4 |
| Zuari Industries | Buy | 737 | 74.2 | 84 | 9.9 | 8.88 |
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Appollo Hospitals
Apollo Hospitals
The Apollo Hospitals Educational and Research Foundation (AHERF) has firmed up its stem cell research collaboration with US-based StemCyte, investing $15 million (Rs 70 crore) in the 50-50 venture. This is the first of Apollo’s four new research initiatives, and will be carried out by a
12-member team at its Hyderabad facilities.
The other three areas are developing treatments using traditional systems of medicine like Ayurveda, Unani, Homoeo and Siddha, exploring significance of genetic factors in cardio vascular disease (CVD) and the use of mobile phone and information technologies in healthcare. The research on CVD predisposition among Indians will begin in September at four of its hospitals including Hyderabad, and would be done in collaboration with two public sector institutes.
Apollo group chairman Prathap C Reddy told reporters here on Monday that funding was not a problem and that AHERF had obtained recognition of the Department of Science as a research organisation, making it eligible for government funding. “For each of these programmes, we can get different partners. We will take funding from government agencies like the Department of Biotechnology.”
Reddy said the stem cell venture would have Ahmedabad-based pharma company Cadila as a back-end partner and would work on regenerative therapies for spinal injury, cardiac and cerebral stroke. AHERF has a similar, already operational partnership with Quintiles of US, under which it has started Phase I clinical trials and is awaiting approval for its first-in-human studies. Apollo invested $10 million in this 40-60 venture. We advise to Accumulate this stock on every dip.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Top large cap picks, best midcap Buys
Top Large-cap Buys
Stock Sector CMP (Rs) Target (Rs) Expected Ret.(%)
1. Dr Reddy’s Pharmaceutical 1329 1803 35.6
2. Gail Oil & Gas 465 530 14.00
3. HCL Tech IT Services 408 470 15.00
4. L&T Infrastructure 1878 2134 13.60
5. M&M Automobile 624 712 14.10
Top Mid-cap Buys
Stock Sector CMP (Rs) Target (Rs) Ret.(%)
1. ADSL IT Services 230 304 32.1
2. Escort ltd. Agri Equipments 187 230 21.5
3. Nagarjuna Construction Infrastructure 163 199 22.1
4. Phillips Carbon Auto components 204 250 22.5
5.Usha Martin Metals 84 102 22.2
Stock Sector CMP (Rs) Target (Rs) Expected Ret.(%)
1. Dr Reddy’s Pharmaceutical 1329 1803 35.6
2. Gail Oil & Gas 465 530 14.00
3. HCL Tech IT Services 408 470 15.00
4. L&T Infrastructure 1878 2134 13.60
5. M&M Automobile 624 712 14.10
Top Mid-cap Buys
Stock Sector CMP (Rs) Target (Rs) Ret.(%)
1. ADSL IT Services 230 304 32.1
2. Escort ltd. Agri Equipments 187 230 21.5
3. Nagarjuna Construction Infrastructure 163 199 22.1
4. Phillips Carbon Auto components 204 250 22.5
5.Usha Martin Metals 84 102 22.2
Buzzing Stock..........
Spel semiconductors
Traded at BSE only (517166)
Today ,Once crosses 18.50 level………….Grab it !!
Sell 25% at 21.50…………and REST hold upto Rs.27-28 level
SPEL Semiconductors spells out Rs 1,280-cr expansion plan !! MCAP AT Rs 83CR JOKE ??
Consumer electronics on the run …Hitachi, Videocon, Mirc, Whirlpool ……
but they all depend on SPEL SEMICONDUCTER !!
Triger 1
Triger 2
JUNE Q1 PROFIT =
1.62 CR VS 0.77CR UP 110%
Mcap at Rs 18=83cr
Sales at Rs 87cr fy10
Sales expected to cross Rs120cr F.Y11
Triger 3
SPEL Semiconductor Ltd has arrived at a settlement with the last of its term loan lenders, IFCI. Under a one-time settlement scheme, the company will pay the financial institution Rs 2 crore.
The company has paid Rs 25 lakh and expects to pay the rest by the end of the financial year, “although we have a year’s time,” Mr Ar Rm Arun, Vice-Chairman, SPEL Semiconductor Ltd, told Business Line.
At a court-convened meeting of shareholders, for getting their approval for conversion of the parent company SPIC’s loans into equity, the SPEL Semiconductor Chief Financial Officer, Mr Venkatesh Kumar, said that the company had settled loans of about Rs 15 crore in the last couple of years.
.
Investors………Buy and FORGET for just 10-15-20 days
Your Investment Risk Rs.2
IPO Analysis
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.
Advise: Avoid
Advise: Avoid
Gujarat Pipavav Port is principally engaged in providing port handling and marine services for: (i) container cargo, (ii) bulk cargo,and (iii) LPG cargo. In addition, it operates a CFS and also generates revenue from land-related and infrastructure activities. It currently accepts vessels with up to 14.5 metre draught at chart datum and deploys three tugs for providing pilotage and towage services. It has four berths with a total length of 1,075 metres used for handling bulk and containerised cargo and an LPG berth with a service deck of 65 metres and a length between extreme mooring dolphins of 308 metres. The 4,550 metre channel length at the Port allows day and night marine operations throughout the year. It has created extensive support infrastructure to handle container, bulk and LPG cargo, such as container yards, yard handling equipment, quay cranes, rubber-tyred gantry cranes, paved rail sidings, warehouses,open stackyards and a port users‟ building to accommodate the offices of custom house agents, stevedores‟ agents and shipping lines.
The Net Proceeds are proposed to be utilised for the following objects:
- Prepayment of loans of our Company;
- Investment in Capital Expenditure;
- Investment in Capital Equipment; and
- General corporate purposes.
- World seaborne trade has grown almost continuously since the 1970s with over 80% of world merchandise trade. During the past three decades, the annual average growth rate of world seaborne trade is estimated at 3.1%. At this rate, it would be expected to increase by 44% in 2020 and double by 2031,potentially reaching 11.5 billion tones and 16.04 billion tones, respectively.
- India's share in total world trade, which includes trade in the merchandise and services sector has gone up from 1.1% in 2004 (the initial year of the five-year Foreign Trade Policy (2004-09) to 1.45% in 2008.
- The traffic at ports in India is expected to increase to 877 million tones per year by fiscal 2012 and 962 million tones per year by fiscal 2014. In the next five years, Industry Research expects non-Major Ports to continue gaining market share in containers and bulk cargo handling as throughput growth is expected to be over 25% CAGR, against below 10% CAGR for Major Ports.
- APM Terminals Pipavav is one of a small number of deep draught gateways on the west coast of India and is located in the Saurashtra region of the state of Gujarat. It is approximately 140 kilometres southwest of Bhavnagar and approximately 150 nautical miles from ports in and around Mumbai. It is approximately 90 kilometres away from the Diu airport, which is the nearest airport.
- It is strategically located near the entrance of the Gulf of Khambhat (formerly known as the Gulf of Cambay) on the main maritime trade routes, which helps them serve imports from and exports to the Middle East, Asia, Africa, the United States,Europe and other international destinations.
- Key customers in container cargo include shipping lines such as Maersk Line, Mitsui O.S.K Lines,Safmarine Container Lines, Samudera Shipping Line Limited, Shreyas Shipping and Logistics Limited, Hyundai Merchant Marine India Private Limited, The Shipping Corporation of India Limited, Emirates Shipping Line, Malaysia International Shipping Corporation, Orient Overseas Container Line Limited and United Arab Shipping Company.
- Strategically located to serve the landlocked northern and northwestern regions of India, which are expecting significant manufacturing and trade growth. It is closer than JNPT for traffic heading to or coming from northern and northwestern India.
- It is connected to the Indian Railways network through an approximately 269 kilometre-long dedicated broad gauge railway link maintained by PRCL, which is 38.8% owned by them. It also has a four lane road link of approximately 10 km to National Highway-8E for transporting cargo to and from the Port. The road distances from the Port to key tradings hubs such as Ahmedabad, Jaipur and Delhi are 302 km, 873 km, and 1,115 km, respectively.
- APM Terminals is one of the largest container terminal operators in the world with a global terminal network of 49 terminals in 32 countries and five continents. Maersk Line and Safmarine Container Lines, each part of APMM Group are both strategic customers & largest customers of GPPL and operate regular cargo shipping services from Port to international destinations, including the Middle East, Europe and the United States.
Key Concerns:
- Small number of customers and partners account for a large proportion of its revenue. Any loss of its major customers or any significant decreases in spending by some or all of its top five customers on our services may reduce the demand for Port and the services that are offered and may adversely affect the revenue, profitability and results of operations.
- Failure to meet traffic volume obligations under the Traffic Guarantee Agreement could materially affect its business, cash flows and results of operation.
- Reduction in business with APMM Group companies, or decrease in the direct or indirect benefit from such companies could adversely affect its financial condition and results of operations.
- Inability to effectively manage growth or successfully implement business plan and growth strategy could have an adverse effect on its business, results of operations and financial condition.
Valuation & Advise:
At the lower and upper end of the price band, the issue is quoting at P/BV of 4.3-4.9x its Dec FY09 Book Value of Rs 9.78. Its peer in this space is Mundra Port trading at P/BV of 9x and PE of 46x FY10 EPS of Rs. 17.5 per share. The traffic at ports in India is expected to increase to 954 million tons per year by 2012 & 1167 million tons by 2014. Traffic at the ports is expected to surge at a CAGR of 9.7% from 2008-2014 due to buoyant Indian economic growth. But we do believe that GPPL as compared to Mundra Port is comparatively smaller and it will take time for the company to deliver a positive PAT. One can definitely look for better avenues to park their money for better returns. Since not much peers are available we suggest going long on Mundra Port to enjoy higher comparative valuation. We give an AVOID for the issue.
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